China's Great Demographic Shift: North to South
Population distribution by Skinner macro-region, 2 AD – 1982. Data: Ge Jianxiong 葛剑雄,《中国人口发展史》(2000–05).
2 – 280 AD
Han: ~80% north of Huai-Qinling 淮河秦岭. 永嘉 Yongjia catastrophe triggers first great migration; parity by mid-3rd c. (Ge p.341).
280 – 742 AD
Oscillation. Sui reunification restores north to ~60%. Tang peak (742): N:S = 6:5 (Ge p.343). Northern advantage "already contained hidden crisis."
755 – 1100 AD
安史之乱 destroys the north. "South exceeding north became permanent 已经定型" (Ge p.344). By 1085: ~65:35 S:N (p.345).
1100 AD – present
Permanent. "Never reversed 再没有反复" (Ge p.344). Gap narrows under Qing as Manchuria and uplands fill in.
Pop. centroid 人口重心 (Hu & Zhang 1984; Ge Table 35, p.360)
Huai-Qinling divide 淮河秦岭 (Ge p.341)
North/South divide 南北分界: Huai River 淮河, Qinling Mountains 秦岭, Bailong River 白龙江 (Ge p.341). N/S ratios from Ge's stated figures where available; estimated from Table 26 commandery data (2 AD), Table 28 dao densities (Tang), and centroid position (Ming-Qing). Song-Jin era ratio is a cross-polity comparison (see panel notes).
Macro-regions: G.W. Skinner (CHGIS v5, Harvard).
Population: Ge Jianxiong 葛剑雄,《中国人口发展史》(Sichuan People's Press, 1991; rev. 2020), Ch. 14 (pp. 325–372); Tables 26 (p. 327), 27 (p. 334), 28 (p. 343), 29 (p. 345), 35 (p. 360).
Centroid: Hu Huanyong 胡焕庸 & Zhang Shanyu 张善余,《中国人口地理》(East China Normal UP, 1984), p. 217.
Registration debate: Kent Deng, "Unveiling China's True Population Statistics for the Pre-Modern Era," Population Review 43.2 (2004), pp. 32–69 vs. Ge et al.,《中国人口史》6 vols. (Fudan UP, 2000–05).